A hung parliament is currently the Tories’ best hope

Paul Montague-Smith, lead counsel – public affairs at MRM, looks at the potential outcomes of the snap General Election.

Own your mistakes, they say – so clearly, I need to eat my hat! I haven’t properly learned that making predictions in politics these days is a mug’s game.

My only consolation is that Cabinet ministers, backbenchers and the BBC’s Nick Robinson, among many others, were surprised by Rishi Sunak’s decision to call the election for 4 July.

The rationale that’s evolved – the ability to ‘own the narrative’ and not be labelled a Downing Street squatter; wrong-footing an unprepared Reform UK; concern that even more small boats will cross the Channel over the summer; expected judicial delays to Rwanda flights; no room for more tax cuts in the autumn; and little prospect of better economic news other than the recent drop in inflation – all makes sense.

It was apparently a finely balanced decision, but what message does it send to the public that key goals of the government are unlikely to be met, and that this is the high point for Conservative chances of success?

The accepted wisdom of election campaigns is that there are three core approaches that you can prosecute – ‘it’s time for a change’, ‘better the devil you know’, or ‘stick with the plan – don’t turn back’. Labour has gone big and simple with its one-word campaign slogan, ‘Change’.

So far, it looks like the Conservatives are pursuing the other two in tandem. Then there is the question of whether you go for a big tent or core vote strategy for your campaign. Labour appears to be going for a Blair style big tent approach. So far, the Conservative policy announcements seem geared to buying off pensioners (most of whom vote Conservative) and annoying the young (most of whom don’t).

Let’s remind ourselves of what Labour needs to do to get into Downing Street. For a majority they need to win 121 more seats, for which a uniform swing of over 12% is thought to be needed – more than the 10.2% that New Labour achieved in 1997. For a working majority of around 30 seats the swing needs to be nearly 14%.

A swing to Labour of just over 4% would see the Conservatives lose their majority but remain the largest party. For Labour to be the largest party it needs a swing of around 8%. Going into the campaign Labour has an average of a 21-point lead in the polls. If either Labour or the Conservatives win a majority, it will be a record-breaking election.

The best the Conservatives can currently hope for is a hung parliament. They need the polls to be wrong, to narrow, and to win over most of the 15% of people who say they are currently undecided. But when more voters dislike you than they did Jeremy Corbyn – as a recent YouGov survey suggests – you have a serious problem to overcome.

Labour is doing everything it can not to scare the electorate, except for when pointing to the Tories. It has committed not to raise income tax or National Insurance and Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves has gone so far as to say there will be “no additional tax rises” beyond those they have already set out. Whether that promise would survive contact with the state of the public finances is rather doubtful.

The party is continuing to position itself as friendly to business, keen to work in partnership with industry to secure growth, acknowledging – as Tony Blair and Gordon Brown did – that only growth from the private sector can provide the money for decent public services. They’ve pulled the traditional Tory trick of getting business executives to sign a letter supporting a Labour government. In consultancy and in-house I’ve always counselled against it. It’s more trouble than it’s worth. It was hardly a stellar list of signatories, and it was noticeable that a few lobbying companies were included, one led by a former Labour candidate and another who had flipped from supporting the Conservatives.

The third is led by a long-standing Labour supporter. If you were cynical, you might think some of the signatories are hoping for a return for their support sometime down the line. If they are, chances are they’ll be disappointed.

With Parliament now finally dissolved there are no more MPs, only candidates. Ministers remain in post but only do essential things to keep government quietly ticking over in the background. Unless you love elections like I do, you may have turned off already, only to re-engage near voting day.

But it is a fascinating and wonderful thing that we can choose our representatives – whatever the strengths and weaknesses of our voting system – every four years or so after a hard fought, often brutal campaign, with unexpected twists and turns. It is also a responsibility that should be taken seriously so, if you can, please use your vote – and remember to take your ID to the polling station!