Dramatic election night on the card as record polls forecast Tory wipeout

Paul Montague-Smith, senior counsel – public affairs at MRM, looks at the lay of the political land 10 days out from a general election that could break records – and Tory Party careers.

Ten days to go and if the polls are right, it’s looking as if the Conservatives are going to be routed on 4 July and Labour will end up with a big majority.

Usually, any opposition lead in the polls narrows before polling day. Not so far here. Labour have maintained their 20-point lead since the election was called over four weeks ago.

It seems people aren’t buying what the Conservatives are selling, which is ‘stick with the plan’ and ‘it’s dangerous out there’. Rather they appear to have decided ‘it’s time for a change’ and Keir Starmer’s presentation of Labour as a reformed, more centrist party is being accepted by voters.

Seat predictions for the Conservatives currently range from fewer than 100 to around 190, down from the 376 they won in 2019. It’s possible that on share of the national vote they could fall behind Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, although because of the way our voting system works that wouldn’t be reflected in the number of seats for each party.

It is, quite frankly, looking like it will be a brutal night of carnage for the Conservatives. In 2019 they were protected through Farage’s agreement not to put up a Reform candidate where there was a sitting Tory MP.

The Conservatives’ failure to control immigration has meant Farage is determined to teach them a lesson, even if it means helping to deliver a Labour Government that would be less inclined to take the kind of action he would want to see on immigration and would be the antithesis of its wider policy platform.

So far Labour have run a slick campaign with no major slip ups. The closest they’ve come to a hiccup was announcing a ban on bidding wars for rental properties, without being able to explain how it would work in practice. In reality, it looks like it will be a ban on landlords encouraging bids.

The Conservatives on the other hand have had an awful time. If you’re being asked during the campaign whether you will still be Prime Minister, come polling day, you know you’re in big trouble.

The D-Day debacle, the current polling day gambling investigations and the mocking memes about how tough the PM must have had things as a child, all add to a general sense of things going wrong.

They must be hoping that the recent trouble Nigel Farage has got himself into over Ukraine – which he appears to be doubling down on – will encourage some deserters back into the fold. Praying for things to turn up to minimise the apparent carnage heading their way is where the Conservatives appear to be.

Whatever the outcome of this election it’s likely to be a record breaker. If Labour does win big, it should finally put to bed the idea that you can get into Downing Street on a radical Corbyn style platform.

Of course, what you do and say to win an election is one thing. How you govern is another. Whoever gets into Downing Street faces tough decisions. The two main parties have once again boxed themselves in by ruling out changes to any of the big money raising taxes.

While inflation is back to target, our debt is now pretty much 100% of GDP. The consensus is that either spending cuts or more tax rises – or both – will be needed during the next Parliament.

Labour’s plans rely on growth returning to levels seen when it was last in power. Whether that will be seen at all, let alone quickly, is pure hope at this point. Having ruled out a ‘return to austerity’, if growth doesn’t appear then further tax rises must be on the cards.

What Labour would likely do in office, including in its first Budget and the Comprehensive Spending Review that needs to take place in the Autumn, is for another day. For now, 4 July is looking as if it will deliver one of the most dramatic political nights in decades, bar the EU referendum. I’ll have my popcorn ready.