Three big events that defined 2024 – and three you won’t want to miss in 2025
Edmund Greaves, head of editorial at MRM, reflects on the seismic shifts that shaped 2024 and casts an eye on the defining moments ahead in 2025. With the economic and political landscape in flux, he picks out the key dates that mattered this year and the ones you won’t want to miss next.
And so 2024 is drawing to a close. Politically it has been climactic.
Without being too dramatic here, we’ve witnessed the beginnings of a significant global political realignment in the wake of several years of economic messes.
The canary in the coalmine was Javier Milei’s extraordinary win in Argentina at the end of 2023. This was followed by the weakening, or outright repudiation, of mainstream governing politicians and their parties in countries including France, Germany, India, Japan, South Africa, the UK and of course the most momentous of them all – the USA.
But beyond the pure political events – and other shocking events such as what has happened across the Middle East – what can we look back on and marvel at its effect on the space time continuum?
2024 the year that was
As ever when writing annual summaries of ‘stuff that happened’ there’s no shortage of contenders. So I’ll just pick three that I thought were notable for our purposes in financial media.
1 August – Bank of England cuts rates
On 1 August the Bank of England cut its base rate from 5.25% to 5% – the first such cut since 19 March 2020 when the policy rate was cut to 0.1% at the onset of the pandemic lockdowns.
We know the story – inflation went mad at the end of 2021 and didn’t come back down to ‘normal’ levels until the middle of this year.
By August, with the economy flat, the Bank of England saw fit to start cutting. Where we are now with it is a bit of a guess, thanks to all manner of other factors!
29 October – Rachel Reeves delivers a Budget blitz
The first Labour Budget since 2010 – and Rachel Reeves’s first one as Chancellor – and it was a big one.
As is typical of newly elected parties, Labour sought to do some of the most painful stuff as early as possible.
The fallout from the Budget is ongoing though, with farmers driving tractors up Whitehall, and businesses regularly making discomforted noises about pay and employment thanks to the National Insurance Contribution (NIC) hikes.
5 December – Bitcoin hit $100,000
I picked this one more for its broader implications than the specific news story. Bitcoin (BTC) enthusiasts are very effusive as BTC hits ‘six digits’ but really the difference between $99,999 and $100,000 is nominal.
What is interesting in this news is the surge in BTC encapsulates a series of trends in 2024 that have combined to push its price higher. Those include the all-powerful return of Trump, the loss of faith in ‘traditional’ institutions, and mistrust of the financial system.
The rise and rise of BTC can tell us a lot of things. “What its value is based on” might not necessarily be one of those things. But at this point, it seems to go up as long as normal people continue to reject status quos in how the world is arranged. Change never felt so present, and so uncontrollable.
2025 the year that will be
And so to the year ahead.
Again, we could try and divine all sorts from the year that is to come, so a bit of restraint is warranted. Here are three things I think we should all be on the lookout for next year.
20 January – Trump inauguration
Donald Trump won the presidential election, but his inauguration only takes place on 20 January. His imperial demeanour is already well documented.
Tom McTague notes in “Trump’s new world order” for UnHerd that many countries and politicians seem to already be getting their ducks in a row based on things Trump may or may not do – and this conveys his power in its purest sense.
It’s a new world, we’re just living in it. Expect 20 January and the ensuing days to set the tone for the entire year – and possibly the rest of the 21st Century.
4 July – 9 August – The Oasis reunion tour
Not because I’m an Oasis fan or anything but because it strikes me as a big incoming cultural moment and something of a doppelganger of the sweepingly successful Taylor Swift Eras tour of 2024.
Culture, many would agree, is in a rut where new IP is hard to commercialise. This means we’re condemned to one million Avenger movies, and putting Harrison Ford, broken bones and all, back in the Millenium Falcon/Temple of Doom.
Oasis has been criticised for cashing in on legacy fandom, while ticket sellers get rich on the algos. Ironically enough what we really need is a new 90s Brit Pop era full of bolshie boys and girls with bad haircuts swearing on live TV, just like Liam and Noel did in the good old days.
October-November 2025 – Another Budget
While we don’t have a specific date for this one, we’ve got a long way to wait until the next Government Budget.
The Government has just announced a Spring Statement on 26 March confirming Rachel Reeves’s intention to return to having just one Budget a year – which presage the end of the ensuing tax year.
My one big caveat here is as the UK economy struggles with various things, we may well see an emergency Budget. Unfortunately, I don’t have any odds to illustrate this – Ladbrokes’s politics page isn’t offering any (currently). It is offering Nigel Farage as odds on for next Prime Minister though which is…interesting for its own reasons.
The scenario that would trigger an emergency Budget (probably not delivered by Reeves imho) would likely rest on shock unemployment levels and recession.
Unemployment is the dog that hasn’t barked in all this. Because it’s currently hard to measure, and often very laggy, I wouldn’t expect the effect of NICs hikes on the labour market to become really clear before Q2 at the earliest.
Ultimately my hedged guess here would be a June/July emergency Budget in the follow up – much earlier and we’d just get a Spring full Budget upgrade instead.