We’re almost guaranteed an Autumn General Election

Paul Montague-Smith, senior counsel, public affairs at MRM considers potential dates for a now-imminent General Election, and the dismal outlook for Conservative MPs.

With a May general election now ruled out by the Prime Minister, we’re all set for an October or November trip to the polls.

While a Summer election is possible, there hasn’t been one in August since 1895. The last one in July was immediately after the Second World War. June would be too close to the May local elections, at which the Conservatives are likely to do very badly.

January 2025 would leave the Prime Minster vulnerable to a narrative of clinging onto power until the last second. So an Autumn election seems pretty much a dead cert.

The Prime Minister could call the election soon after Parliament returns from its summer recess on 2^nd September, in which case polling day would most likely be the 10^th or 17^th of October. That would mean the campaign would overlap with the annual party conference season.

While they are big money raising exercises for the main parties, it wouldn’t make sense for party members who would otherwise be canvassing to congregate in Liverpool or Manchester for a knees-up, so conferences would probably have to be junked.

Any businesses considering a presence at the party conferences – particularly the taking of expensive exhibition space – need to know their spending might very likely be at risk. A close look at the parties’ T&Cs would be worthwhile!

If an election is called after the conference season, it would probably take place around 21^st November. It’ll be dark earlier by then and the weather is more likely to be unpleasant. But contrary to what we might expect, there isn’t hard evidence that weather would significantly affect turnout. 

While the December 2019 election had a relatively low turnout, the 1950 and 1974 elections, both held on cold and wet days in February, had the highest turnouts to date. Even if the weather were to be a factor, it’s not clear whether any party would benefit the most.

Older age groups are significantly more likely to vote than younger ones (turnout amongst voters aged 18-44 is around 50-60%, while it’s around 70-83% for those 45 and over). They’re also much more likely to vote Conservative.

Whether it’s October, November, or even December, the next Parliament is going to see a significant change in personnel. To date nearly 100 MPs have announced that they won’t be standing again.

Given the polls it’s no surprise over two-thirds of them are Conservative. We may well see quite a few more announcing their retirement ahead of the summer, particularly after the May local elections.

On current polling hundreds of seats could changes hands. The battle will also be fought on revised constituency boundaries, which try to ensure each MP represents a similar number of constituents. The changes are expected to favour the Conservatives, with analysis suggesting a benefit of around seven seats, were people to vote as they did in 2019.

With the state of the polls, yet another by-election on the way and the May local elections approaching, speculation about a possible leadership challenge to Rishi Sunak continues to rumble on. That the suggestion is even being floated will not be helping the party’s prospects.

The chances are, though, that it will intensify after a drubbing at the May elections. If panic sets in and another contest is launched it would surely be a final act of self-harm.

The party couldn’t credibly go to the country with a fourth Prime Minister in five years. Its best hope must be to hold firm, unite and focus its fire on Labour, rather than itself.